The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held the Article IV Consultation on Nicaragua, corresponding to 2024, on January 29. Said Consultation is a follow-up to the preliminary conclusions drawn by the official mission that visited the country from November 11 to 22 last year within the framework of this annual periodic review; and it was up to the Board to discuss and approve said preliminary conclusions.
It is for this reason that, following the press release published by the head of this mission, Alina Carare, at the conclusion of the visit, the Nicaraguan Democratic Concertation Monteverde (CDN) sent a first letter to the executive board of the IMF on November 25.
In it we expressed our concern that this public statement did not incorporate, among other details: aspects related to human rights in the current geopolitical scenario of Nicaragua, the dismantling of democratic institutions, the systematic destruction of political parties and the arbitrary cancellation of approximately 80% of civil society organizations, including all business and trade unions.
In the letter we stated to the executive board that it is not possible to disassociate political conditions from economic behavior. Omitting relevant information or making it invisible does not avoid the effects it has on the country’s economic development. A partial presentation of what is happening does not reflect the reality of the country, lends itself to wrong conclusions and generates doubts about the reason for this type of position.
The repercussions of the constitutional reform were ignored
As expressed in the letter, it is striking that Mrs. Carare has not made any comment on the economic implications of the constitutional reform that was approved in the first legislature, the same day she published the press release.
In addition, on November 25, only three days after knowing Mrs. Carare’s public position, they approved the Law for the Protection of Nicaraguans against Sanctions and Aggressions. On December 30th, the Law for the Administration of the Monetary and Financial System went into effect. Last January 30 they presented three new bills related to the financial system, and the constitutional reform was already approved in the second legislature, so it only remains for them to publish it so that it can go into effect. All of the above results in the dismantling of private initiative and total control of the banking and financial system.
Both the constitutional reform and the new legal framework recently approved and what is in the process of approval, further deteriorate the conditions found by the IMF mission during its visit to the country.
In the face of the recommendations issued by the mission to: improve the business climate and the rule of law, guarantee judicial independence in accordance with international covenants ratified by Nicaragua, strengthen the transparency of administrative and judicial processes linked to property rights, and others, the Ortega Murillo regime responded with a resounding no to each one through constitutional reform and the approval of other laws.
Trump’s immigration policy will have an effect
It will have a severe impact on the migratory situation of more than half a million Nicaraguans who are under Temporary Protection Programs (TPS) and humanitarian parole, and this will not happen in the medium term as the technical staff of the mission proposed, but in the short term.
Considering this new situation, on January 27, the Nicaraguan Democratic Concertation Monteverde sent a reminder of what was stated in the November letter, so that during the Consultation the IMF executive board would take into account the concern raised in the first letter, but also take into account the new legal-legal circumstances in Nicaragua and the external circumstances linked to the migration issue, with the impact it could have on the flow of remittances, on jobs and on real wages.
We hope that in the Article IV Consultation, Mrs. Carare and the executive board have incorporated everything that has happened since the end of the mission’s visit and that its definitive conclusions reflect the reality that Nicaraguans live and not one at the convenience of the interlocutor, as presented by the head of mission in her preliminary conclusions.
Judicial declaration of illegitimacy
On October 16, 2024, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR), issued a ruling on the violation of Fabio Gadea Mantilla’s right and opportunity to be elected by means of an authentic electoral process that reflected the will of the voters. It declared the international responsibility of the State of Nicaragua for repeated violations of the American Convention on Human Rights (Pact of San José) and, as an affected party, Gadea Mantilla and the Nicaraguan voters, whose right to elect and be elected was also violated.
The IAHCR supported its arguments with abundant evidence. They analyzed the 2011 electoral process and determined its absolute lack of integrity, as it was held with advantages for Daniel Ortega. It also confirmed that the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) and the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) did not act impartially and that there was no effective legal recourse to review the decisions of the electoral authority.
The CSJ, built through serious irregularities that affected its independence, allowed Ortega to opt for reelection through a spurious sentence, despite the fact that the Constitution contained an express prohibition that prevented him from doing so.
According to the Court, the actions and omissions of the State, co-chaperoned by the Ortega Murillo family, were of such magnitude that they affected the integrity of the electoral process and violated Article 23.1 a) and b) of the Pact of San José; and violated the right to compete in conditions of equality, as provided in Articles 23.1 c) and 24 of the Pact.
No independence or impartiality
This tribunal corroborated that, due to the lack of independence and impartiality of the CSE and the entire structure under its control, the 2011 elections were plagued by structural irregularities. This caused that process to take place in a climate of total uncertainty because the regulations that governed it were not followed, a situation that was previously denounced by international electoral observers.
According to the Inter-American Court, Ortega’s reelection was the result of an abuse of power executed by the Executive, through the Judicial and Electoral branches. The imposition of his candidacy violated Article 147 of the Constitution, which expressly prohibited consecutive presidential reelection. Therefore, it can be unequivocally concluded that this sentence declares the illegitimacy of Ortega’s mandate from 2011.
The IACHR reaffirmed its advisory opinion of 2021 in which it declared that indefinite presidential reelection does not constitute a human right, arguing that allowing this practice contravenes democratic principles and the right to political equality, since it grants undue advantages.
This ruling is relevant for the entire continent, because it reaffirms that by prohibiting indefinite reelection, political pluralism, alternation in power and the system of counterweights that guarantees the separation of powers of the States are protected.
Final and unappealable sentence
The indefinite reelection that the Ortega Murillo family secured with a constitutional reform after 2011, which they reaffirmed in their new totalitarian Constitution, does not guarantee the integrity of the electoral processes and perfects the destruction of the foundations of democracy.
The electoral conditions analyzed by the IACHR worsened in the following processes. In fact, and in law, the new Constitution violates the Pact of San José, particularly Article 23 concerning the principles of authenticity, universality, freedom, and equality in the electoral processes.
In accordance with articles 67 and 68 of the Covenant, Nicaragua is committed to comply with the sentence ordering non-repetition, full reparation, establishing an impartial and independent electoral authority and adapting internal regulations. The decision of the IACHR is final and unappealable, and as long as it is not complied with, it will not be possible to speak of authenticity of the electoral results, nor of authorities legitimately elected by the people.
For this sentence not to become illusory, it is necessary that Nicaraguan democrats demand the collective guarantee that obliges the member countries of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the international community to cooperate effectively for its implementation, to enjoy a true regional community committed to the protection of human rights and the rule of law.
For the Nicaraguan Democratic Concertation (CDN), the collective guarantee is a general obligation that corresponds to the States parties to the Pact of San José and the international community, as it constitutes an obligation erga omnes, by protecting rights whose importance gives rise to the shared duty of the States to protect them, in order to achieve the supremacy of human rights and international law.