Recent efforts in the United States Congress on Nicaragua

The U.S. Congress, through the Upper House of the Senate and the Lower House of Representatives, has shown, through hearings, interviews with leaders, and proposed legislation that puts more pressure on Nicaragua, that it is still interested in helping to resolve the socio-political crisis  the country  has been facing for the past six years.

The most recent actions are Senate Bill 1881 and House Bill HB 6954 (Restoring Sovereignty and Human Rights in Nicaragua Act of 2023), both under the same title.

Both proposals include similar but not identical contents. Once approved by the subcommittees and submitted to a vote in the plenary sessions of each House, they will enter the final process to become law, which is generally a minor task.

In April 2024, a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations subcommittee approved its proposal. The bill’s purpose is to evaluate performance and accountability for the Nicaraguan State’s transgressions in the absence of a functional and democratic rule of law.

The bill is awaiting to be scheduled for a vote in the full Senate after the 2024 summer recess. It was formulated to extend the Nicaraguan Conditionality Act until 2030. The bill has eight particular items that will allow for policy actions by the U.S. government.

The items extending authority to the Nica Act of 2018 retain aspects referring to sanctions, which now include (Sec. 103 and 104) those who have participated in acts of repression against religious authorities. It also extends sanctions to the structures of the Army through the Military Social Security Institute (IPSM).

In addition, it establishes that it must scrutinize the execution of loans granted by the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). Although the United States is not a member of CABEI, it can indirectly exert pressure against the financial decisions made by the institution that benefit the regime.

The Title II section refers to the Free Trade Agreement between the Dominican Republic, Central America, and the United States (known as DR-CAFTA) and introduces elements present in the Renacer Act related to the review of the trade agreement. In other words, it extends and maintains the subject matter. The important thing is that Congress is emphasizing that trade with Nicaragua cannot continue under the same terms amid a dictatorship.

A new and significant component is the emphasis on section 203, which invokes the Trade Act of 1974. This determines that if a trading partner is a country that does not behave like a market economy, then the United States will have the discretion to impose tariffs and other measures.

The Act provides that «it is the principal statutory authority under which the United States may impose trade sanctions on foreign countries that violate trade agreements or engage in other unfair trade practices.» In addition, «when negotiations to eliminate the offending trade practice fail, the United States may take action to increase import duties on the foreign country’s products as a measure to rebalance lost concessions».

Other proposal components include collaboration with the United Nations on human rights issues.  Section 301 opens the door to support the civic democratic movement.

Approval of this bill is very likely. However, the approval of the preliminary bill in the Lower House is required. This bill will enter three subcommittees in the period after the summer recess.

The probability of this bill’s approval before the end of the year or before the November 2024 elections is intermediate or more likely.